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利用微观面板数据,考察家庭房产价值变化对城镇居民非住房消费的影响,在此基础上对影响的作用机制和群体性差异行了研究。本文主要有以下发现:首先,房产价值变化正向显著影响消费,但量级较小,进一步来看长期比短期影响更为明显。其次,针对作用机制检验的研究发现,本文否认了直接财富效应和抵押品效应,同时支持了预防性储蓄动机。再次,进一步来看,预防性储蓄动机的发挥,在不同地域、不同房价地区和不同住房数量的人群中存在显著差异。
利用2013年中国家庭收入调查数据,本文考察了住房公积金制度受惠人群的特征,并研究了公积金制度的收入分配效应。结果表明,城镇居民在是否缴存公积金、公积金缴存额、是否提取公积金以及公积金提取额等方面存在明显差异,公积金制度通过这四个渠道显著扩大了城镇居民的收入差距。在公有制单位、垄断行业工作的管理和专业技术人员,他们在公积金覆盖率、工资缴存率和实际提取率上都显著高于其他群体,公积金放大了他们本来就存在的收入优势。基于回归的Shapley分解表明,公积金制度对城镇居民收入不平等的贡献在7%左右,其重要性仅次于人力资本因素。
Most poverty research has explored monetary poverty. This paper presents and analyses the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) estimations for China. Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we find China’s global MPI was 0.035 in 2010 and decreased significantly to 0.017 in 2014. The dimensional composition of MPI suggests that nutrition, education, safe drinking water and cooking fuel contribute most to overall non-monetary poverty in China. Such analysis is also applied to sub-groups, including geographic areas (rural/urban, east/central/west, provinces), as well as social characteristics such as gender of the household heads, age, education level, marital status, household size, migration status, ethnicity, and religion. We find the level and composition of poverty differs significantly across certain subgroups. We also find high levels of mismatch between monetary and multidimensional poverty at the household level, which highlights the importance of using both complementary measures to track progress in eradicating poverty.
本文建立了中国公积金可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),将现实状况与“取消公积金”的反事实情形进行对比,研究了住房公积金与居民收入、居民消费、整体宏观经济的关系。主要基础数据是2009年城镇住户调查数据和2010年社会核算矩阵。文章包含理论分析和模型分析两个部分:首先,梳理了住房公积金分布的影响和可能产生的动态冲击,其中解释了公积金在一般均衡框架下的冲击机制,并建立了一个局部均衡分析框架,讨论住房公积金与企业人工成本的理论关系。其次,借助CGE模型模拟了“取消公积金”情形下经济系统的一般均衡状态,从数值角度了解住房公积金的冲击。研究发现:住房公积金在多数情况下会提高企业人工成本,不过,提高公积金的实际效用能够减缓它对人工成本的负面影响;取消公积金对可支配收入产生三个层次的影响,不同机制设计可能造成不同结果;2010年模型结果显示,取消公积金会降低整体可支配收入水平,但低收入家庭的可支配收入水平会增加,从而增加整体居民消费,拉动商品市场的需求,在一定程度上增加生产部门的总产出,并进一步增加居民的市场收入;取消公积金能够使得收入基尼系数和居民消费基尼系数分别下降2.06%和2.15%左右;公积金对收入不平等产生影响的主要原因是它主要被高收入家庭提取,而低收入家庭很难从公积金中获益。根据本文结果,公积金带来了一些负面影响,但也应看到它的积极意义,是否取消应慎重考虑;若以改良为改革方向,重点在于两个要点,一是如何让更多低收入家庭受益,二是如何提高公积金对于职工的实际效用。
China’s Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee program (Dibao) is the largest social safety-net program in the world. Given the scale and the popularity of Rural Dibao, it is necessary to rigorously evaluate it so that policymakers know the extent to which the program meets its intended objective of reducing poverty. This paper develops some new methods and uses data from the 2013 Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) to examine the targeting performance of the rural Dibao program. The paper has found that the Rural Dibao program suffers from very low targeting accuracy, high exclusion error, and inclusion error, and yields a significant negative social rate of return. It discusses possible causes and argues that the fundamental mechanism has to be redesigned to increase the effectiveness of the program. The paper makes some recommendations to reform Dibao that will significantly improve targeting and reduce the cost of running the program. That will help China to achieve its goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2020.
Numerous empirical studies have documented a strong association between social networks and individuals' migration decisions. Few papers formally analyse how social networks affect both migration decisions that affect the evolution of social networks overtime, and labor market outcomes. In order to understand these relationships, I develop and estimate a dynamic model with return and repeated migration, social network investment decisions and labor market transitions. The model distinguishes between two channels through which social networks may affect migration decisions: (1) a direct effect on migration costs and (2) an indirect effect on labor market outcomes through the job arrival rate. I use the model to study one of the largest ongoing internal migrations in human history: rural-urban migration in China. To estimate the model, I use panel data from the Chinese Household Income Project (2007-2009). The estimation results show that social networks affect both channels significantly. Individuals with networks have 40% higher job arrival rate than those without networks on average. In addition, social networks reduce average migration costs by 7%. I also show that policies that directly lower migration costs may be more cost effective at increasing rural-urban migration in China. These policy experiments also show that without considering the impact of network investment, the government has to spend more to offset the effect of no investment in social networks.
We use 1995, 2002 and 2013 CHIP data to investigate the urban household consumption expenditure inequality. The overall inequality of urban household consumption expenditure measured by Gini coefficient slightly decreases from 0.33 in 1995 to 0.32 in 2002, but increases to 0.36 in 2013. However, the percentile ratio of p90/p10 shows that consumption inequality increases all the time. Besides, the inequality of basic food consumption is much smaller than the overall consumption, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality decreases from 20% in 1995 and 2002 to 15% by 2013, and its share also decreases steadily from 34% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 24% in 2013, and finally its share steadily decreases as the overall consumption level moving up the distribution in each of the three years. The inequality of housing consumption is much larger than overall consumption but decreasing over time, its contribution to the overall consumption inequality increases 35% in earlier two years to 40% by 2013, and its share also sharply increases from 23% in 1995 to 30% in 2002 and further to 38% in 2013, besides its share shows upward sloping as overall consumption level increases in each of the three years.
Past studies of the gender wage gap in urban China have found that since the 1980s the gap between men and women’s wage earnings has progressively widened. Using data from the CHIP urban household surveys for the years 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2013, we provide consistent estimates of the gender wage gap in urban China and investigate factors contributing to that gap. From 1995 to 2007 we find a substantial, progressive widening of the gap. From 2007 to 2013 we find that the gender wage gap took a new direction and narrowed. We discuss the gender wage gap in relation to structural changes in the urban economy and life cycle events, as well as government policies that affect women and men differentially. Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions reveal that the contribution of differences in characteristics between men and women to the wage gap had declined over time and, as of 2013 the gap was almost entirely unexplained. We investigate key factors underlying the gender wage gap in recent years, specifically, the relationships between wage earnings of women versus men and sector of employment as well as individual characteristics such as age, education, marriage and children.
The paper investigates the poverty status, trend and its determinants of Han and ethnic minorities in rural China using the CHIP 2002 and CHIP 2013 data. The study finds that household endowments and regional differences mainly lead ethnic minorities and Han households differ. When household endowments and regional differences are being equal, ethnic minorities had even lower probability of falling into absolute poverty than Han households in 2002; and there was no significant difference in probability of f falling into absolute poverty between Han and ethnic minority households in 2013. The decomposition results indicate that higher educational returns for ethnic minorities was the major reason makes the ethnic minorities had lower probability of falling into poverty than Han households in 2002. In sum, the supportive policy from both central and local governments is effective to reduce the poverty for ethnic minorities and ethnic minority areas. The study provides some policy implications for China to get ridding of poverty, in particular for ethnic minority areas. There could be more supports for ethnic minority areas, expand the policy implementation in ethnic minority area. We also suggest improving the educational achievement for people living in poverty. All the ethnic minority children from household under poverty should have equitable access to qualified education and increase their returns from education.
The inequality of wealth in China has increased rapidly in recent years. Prior to 1978 all Chinese households possessed negligible wealth. China therefore presents a fascinating case study of how inequality of household wealth increases as economic reform takes place, marketisation occurs, and capital accumulates. Wealth inequality and its growth are measured and decomposed using data from two national sample surveys of the China Household Income Project (CHIP) relating to 2002 and 2013. Techniques are devised and applied to measure the sensitivity of wealth inequality to plausible assumptions about under-representation of and under-reporting by the wealthy. An attempt is made to explain the rising wealth inequality in terms of the relationships between income and wealth, house price inflation, differential saving, and income from wealth.
This study examines these long-term changes in the distribution of rural income in China from the late 1980s until the mid-2010s. The major findings are summarized as follows. First, contrasting trends are found in the contributions of agricultural income and wage earnings, which reflects structural change in rural income caused by the dual process of economic development and systemic transition in the post-Mao era. Second, it is found that inequality in wealth is becoming increasingly important for understanding rural inequality. Third, there found small but substantial improvements in the redistributive and poverty impacts of public transfers before and after the implementation of pro-rural public policies in the first decade of this century, which has been a historic reversal in the long-lasting urban-biased public policy in contemporary China.
This paper aims to throw new light on the emergence of the Chinese economic middle class using data from the China Household Income Project from 2002, 2007 and 2013. The approach is to define “middle class” as having an income high enough to not be regarded as poor if living in a high income country but also low enough for being regarded as not rich living in such a country. We find that between 2002 and 2013 China’s population structure was transformed from a pyramid shape with a majority having rather low income and declining numbers at higher incomes to a more olive shape as the middle class emerged. In 2013 according to our definitions a third of China’s urban households were middle class in contrast to only a small minority of the rural households and rural migrants living in urban areas. A simulation shows that if household incomes grow by 6.5% per annum to 2020 uniformly for all households in China, the middle class would almost double and a majority of urban residents would be classified as middle class in 2020; however, only 13 percent of rural inhabitants would in 2020 be classified as middle class. In the paper we also examine the characteristics of middle class versus lower income persons, for example, location of residence, education, Communist party membership, and savings rate.
This paper investigates how household income, income inequality and poverty among urban residents in China have developed since 1988 with an emphasis on the period 2007 to 2013. We use CHIP data and show that during a period when many countries in the West experienced stagnating or falling incomes household income in urban China grew by on average 7 percent per annum. However, different from during previous periods earnings grew by not more than 3 percent per annum, while pensions and imputed rents of owner occupied housing grew considerably faster. The trend of fewer and fewer persons in urban China having income lower than a poverty line expressing a constant purchasing power continued between 2007 and 2013. We also show that income growth from 2007 to 2013 was slower in the lower part of the income distribution and thus the trend of increased income inequality in urban China continue. The same applies to the number of people falling under a relative poverty line.
Using the China Household income Project (CHIP) 2002, 2007, and 2013 data, this chapter examines the effects of a series of social policy reforms on the economic distances between the poor and the rich in urban, rural, and migrant families during this period. We find that, in urban areas, pensions helped narrow the economic distances consistently over the years, while other social benefits—including health insurance, social assistance, supplementary income, and in-kind benefits—had little or no redistributive impact. Both rural and migrant social benefits turned from being regressive in 2002 to progressive in 2013. In rural areas, supplementary income and in-kind benefits in the form of agricultural and livelihood subsidies played the most significant redistributive role among the social benefits in 2013, while private transfers also helped narrow the economic distances substantially. For migrants, health benefits and taxes and fees helped narrow the economic distances in 2013, despite to a smaller extent as compared to the rural social benefits. Despite the social policy expansions during this period, in both urban and rural China, market forces still played the dominant role in widening the economic distances between the poor and rich, which trumped the redistributive effects of the social benefits. These results suggest that China’s future social policy reforms face continued challenges in unifying the unbalanced urban-rural-migrant systems and keeping pace with the disequalizing market forces.
Objective of this work is to evaluate redistributive role of public transfer on inequality in China. We attempt to answer two questions in this paper. Firstly, does inequality of after-transfers income narrow, compared to that of before-transfers? Secondly, given scale and distribution of the existing public transfer, will a small percentage increase in the transfers narrow or widen the inequality of total income? By employing methodologies of MT index and decomposition of Gini coefficient of total income by its sources, we find positive answer to the first question and negative answer to the second question. Namely, the public transfers have a positive role on inequality, in the sense that Gini coefficient of after-transfer income becomes small, compared to that of before-transfer income. On the other hand, the public transfers have a negative role on the inequality, as the current inequality will go up if there is a universal increase in the public transfers for all recipients. Of all components of the public transfers, formal sector pension benefits and medical expense reimbursements are disequalizing for inequality of the total income, while the Dibao and rural pension benefits are equalizing.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the rural poverty structures. According to China Household Income Project Data (CHIP1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013), this paper mainly includes two sections: (1) Present the anti-poverty trend and find the problems in recent three decades. (2) Analyze the poverty structures in the new period on the basis of comparison with other periods. There are three aspects considered in poverty structures: the factors may raise household income; the factors may reduce household consumption expenditure; other factors related with poverty alleviation goals. Conclusions: along with the reduction of poverty rate, the poverty depth increased after 2007; along with the reduction of absolute poverty rate, the relative poverty rate kept increasing. Furthermore, according to the analysis of poverty reasons, this paper find the positive effects of rural social security policies on some features of households after 2007; but 16-60 age disable members, proportion of 0-15 age children, health problem of elders are still the important factors in the new period.
We document how the wage structure evolved between 1995 and 2013, using a national representative urban household survey. We find that China's wage level increased significantly and the wage structure had become increasingly unequal. Regional gap and human capital contributes in a major way to the overall wage inequality. The returns to education increased significantly since the 1990s and remained high after 2007, but the young cohorts have lower returns to education. An inverted U-shape of the wage-age profile is also more salient in 2013 than in previous years. Non-wage benefits contributed by employers are increasingly more important in an employee's compensation, and are more unequal than wages.
In this paper we present a family of violation indices that, by analogy with poverty indices, can emphasize the depth of violation to different degrees. We used CHIPs 2007 and 2013 to examine the extent to which minimum wages are complied with in China. And make a comparison with them.
与以往直接使用宏观数据回归得到教育与收入差距的关系不同, 本文通过构建理论模型解释教育扩展如何通过影响教育分布和教育收益率进而影响收入差距的作用机制,并利用中国家庭收入调查( CHIP) 1995、 2002、 2007、 2013 年的微观数据,以最新分解技术 FFL 分解方法重置权重构建反事实,分解出教育扩展对工资差距影响中的价格效应和结构效应。通过 FFL 分解方法对 CHIP2002 和 2013 年的收入及收入差距进行分解发现, 教育扩展的结构效应提高了所有人的收入,价格效应使得“ 穷者越穷,富者越富” 。 相比于 2002年, 2013 年整体收入差距扩大, 高收入群体的收入差距扩大更为明显,教育对收入差距的结构效应为负,即教育扩展通过教育分布缩小了收入差距,但这一影响被教育的价格效应抵消, 教育扩展对收入差距的价格效应为正,且远大于结构效应。因此, 现阶段我国的教育扩展并未缓解反而扩大了城镇职工工资性收入差距。
本文基于中国居民收入分配课题组 2007年和2013 年两次住户调查,讨论这一期间的居民收入差距变动特征。本文的结果表明,这一时期的居民收入总体上仍表现出了较高的增长速度。在这 7年期间,城镇人均收入实际增长 32.6%,农村居民收入增长则翻了一番。但流动人口的收入增长缓慢,只有 19%。从分项收入构成来看,城镇居民的收入增长主要来自于工资收入、养老金和自由住房估算租金;农村居民收入增长的主要贡献因素仍为工资收入,占到农村人均收入增长总额的 40%。在流动人口中,工资收入和家庭经营收入对于总收入的增长贡献达 63%。
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4.20, Conference for Housing Provident Fund project in China